ENERGI OG MILJØ

Energi

I en nylig offentliggjort rapport fra BERR (The Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform) konkluderes det, at importen af gas i 2007 vil være større end den samlede eksport og at UK ligeledes vil være nettoimportør af olie i 2010. Således vil Storbritannien i 2020 være afhængig af import til at dække ¾ af landets samlede energiforbrug. Det er med dette udgangspunkt, at tiltag til en ændret energipolitik er kommet på tale. Kort fattet, består politikken af tre elementer: at reducere energiforbruget og at øge forsyningssikkerheden og at udvide anvendelsen af vedvarende energikilder.

Med den nærværende finansielle krise taget i betragtning forventes det stadig at der vil blive foretaget substantielle investeringer i engergieffektivisering og vedvarende energi, især small scale / microgeneration.


Markedsindikatorer

Vedvarende energikilder er en af hjørnestenene i regeringens oplæg til at takle fremtidens energibehov. Den nuværende målsætning er at 10% af energiforbruget inden 2010 vil komme fra vedvarende energi og andelen i 2020 er vokset til 20%. For at nå disse målsætninger vil der især blive fokuseret på: Low-carbon energy, Low-carbon vehicles og Energy efficiency. Disse sektorer er beskrevet nedenfor:

The low-carbon economy could provide DK manufacturing and service industry with a truly significant opportunity.

The UK has an ambitious target, with the government aiming to reduce, by 2050, carbon emissions to at least 60% below their 1990 level. The British Government’s Climate Change Bill proposes a minimum reduction of 60% by 2050, with an interim target of 26-32% by 2020. The EU is committed to cutting emissions by 20% by 2020, or 30% by 2020 if a matching commitment from major non-EU emitters can be secured.

Three major areas are identified as being of particular interest to Danish companies:

• Low-carbon energy: technologies and systems that reduce the carbon-intensity of energy production (e.g. renewable energy, nuclear power and cleaner fossil fuel based generation).

• Low-carbon vehicles: technologies which reduce the carbon footprint of road transport (e.g. biofuels, alternative propulsion systems and ‘lightweighting’).

• Energy efficiency: a broad range of products which reduce the energy intensity of a given process (e.g. insulation products, industrial automation and energy efficient appliances).


Low-carbon energy

Key points
• The energy industry is the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions in the UK, accounting for 40% of the total.
• Pressure to meet targets to expand the UK’s use of renewable energy and reduce carbon emissions will create significant opportunities for developing a range of sources of low-carbon energy. The most promising for DK industry are in ‘clean’ coal technologies, offshore wind and marine renewables. However, most of these technologies are currently more expensive than conventional forms of electricity generation and will require financial support for the immediate future.
• Nuclear power has a key role to play in creating a low-carbon energy supply and the new-build programme (Jan. 2008) will also offer significant opportunities for DK manufacturers. However, it is not considered here because the opportunities have already been considered in detail

Clean coal
• Coal is used to generate 40% of the world’s electricity and is forecast to remain the dominant fuel for power generation over the coming decades.
• Two sets of clean coal technologies have particular potential to reduce emissions from coal-fired plant – advanced combustion technologies and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
• DK’s strengths in the power, process and offshore engineering industries, the offshore infrastructure stemming from the petroleum industry and an extensive carbon storage capacity leave it well-positioned to take advantage of any growth in the UK market for clean coal technologies.
• DK industry has the capability to supply a number of the major systems, subsystems and components of an advanced coal-fired plant. Areas of particular strength include: supercritical boiler systems, steam turbine generators, gas compressors and air separation units.
• CCS is the removal, transport and storage of the carbon dioxide emissions from a coal plant. DK industry is well positioned in the major capture-related technologies: gasification, oxyfuel combustion and flue gas scrubbing.
• A number of challenges must be overcome if a CCS industry is to emerge in the UK: scaling-up and integrating the component technologies, financing commercial-scale projects and establishing a dedicated regulatory framework.

Offshore wind
• The UK possesses the best wind energy resources, both onshore and offshore, in Europe.
• Since 2000, UK capacity in offshore wind has been growing by 86% per year. The Carbon Trust has estimated that UK revenues from offshore wind could hit £2bn per year by 2020
• The potential size of the offshore market and specialist marine engineering capabilities should make the UK an attractive investment location, especially for next generation turbines designed for offshore deployment.
• UK producers face significant challenges in breaking into well-established global supply chains. The government needs to ensure that obtaining planning consent and connection to the transmission network does not continue to constrain growth in offshore wind capacity.

Marine renewables
• The UK possesses the largest marine energy resource in Europe, around twice as much as any other country. It also has a range of transferable skills and capabilities stemming from the oil and gas, shipbuilding and power generation sectors.
• The Carbon Trust has estimated that the UK could earn annual revenues ranging from £300-900m by 2020 and £600m-£4.2bn by 2050 from marine renewables.
• There are more businesses engaged in the development of devices to harness energy from waves and tidal streams in the UK than in any other country.
• The government needs to develop a more coherent strategy if the UK is to realise the opportunities presented by marine renewables and must review the appropriateness of existing support mechanisms.

Low-carbon vehicles

Key points
• Road transport is the second largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the UK and is one of the few major sectors of the economy in which emissions are rising.
• A range of vehicle technologies and fuels exist which could lower the carbon footprint of road transport. Two major areas of opportunity for DK manufacturers are in internal combustion engines and hybrid and electric vehicles.

Internal combustion engines
• The UK produces close to three million engines a year, or 25-30% of total European output, and remains an important manufacturer on the international stage.
• Ford has approximately a quarter of its global engine production located in the UK and in 2006 announced a £1bn investment in low-carbon technology in the UK.
• The King Review for HM Treasury found that emissions from internal combustion engines could be reduced by up to 30% over the next five to ten years. Some of the main areas of opportunity are in combustion and transmission technologies and engine downsizing.
• In addition to major manufacturers, the UK possesses a number of market-leading designers and developers of engines and engine-related technologies. An area of particular strength is diesel engine technology.
• However, the UK automotive engine industry faces a growing challenge from low-cost countries, which are beginning to play significant role in the manufacture of vehicles and engines.

Hybrid and electric vehicles
• The King Review suggested that the development of hybrid and electric vehicle technologies could result in cars emitting 50% less carbon dioxide than today’s equivalent models, becoming widely available by 2030.
• DK industry has significant expertise in a range of technologies key to hybrid ‘powertrains’ such as control systems and electric drivetrains.
• Diesel-hybrid technology could be a particularly significant area of opportunity. The hybrid market is dominated by petrol-hybrids, but diesel is emerging as the fuel of choice for passenger vehicles in Europe.
• In the short-term, lack of consumer demand and a longterm carbon policy could constrain the market for hybrid vehicles.

Energy efficiency

Key points
• Industry has made significant progress in reducing ‘direct’ emissions of carbon dioxide. However, there is considerable scope to cut ‘indirect’ emissions by increasing energy efficiency.
• Annual emissions from the residential sector have risen by 5% since 1990 and there is considerable scope to use energy more efficiently in the home. Major commercial opportunities exist for companies involved with domestic heating systems.

Motor systems
• Motor systems account for nearly 60% of energy consumption in business. There is considerable scope to increase energy efficiency.
• Variable Speed Drives (VSDs) can reduce the electricity consumption of motor systems by up to 60% by matching the speed of the motor to the requirements of the application.
• Currently their penetration remains low but rising energy prices and awareness of the financial benefits of greater energy efficiency could stimulate renewed interest in their uptake.
• UK industry is well placed to take advantage of this opportunity with a number of companies either manufacturing VSDs or offering motor system design and integration services.
• However, to realise these opportunities, the industry needs to develop ways to communicate the financial benefits more effectively to the end user.

Domestic heating systems
• Domestic heating accounts for approximately four-fifths of residential energy consumption and a quarter of total energy consumption in the UK.
• The UK is the largest gas boiler market in Europe, accounting for almost a quarter of annual sales across the continent.
• In the near term, most opportunities will probably be in high-efficiency condensing boilers, which recover and recycle most of the wasted heat that is lost to the atmosphere from the flue of a conventional boiler.
• Building regulations now require all new installations to be high-efficiency condensing boilers. However, boilers tend to be replaced only every 15 to 20 years.
• Accelerating the replacement cycle would yield significant benefits in cutting emissions and generate major business opportunities for boiler manufacturers but this would require incentives for potential purchasers to address the large upfront costs involved.
• Micro Combined Heat and Power (CHP) is the application of cogeneration (i.e. the simultaneous generation of electricity and useful heat) on a small scale – e.g. in the home or at the premises of a small business.
• An ongoing Carbon Trust field trial suggests that micro CHP could be suitable for a wide range of domestic settings and reduce carbon dioxide emission by 15% to 20% on these sites.
• There is considerable potential for micro CHP in the UK. It can be installed as a direct replacement for a gas boiler. The UK has a relatively old housing stock, a large installed base of gas boilers and an extensive gas distribution network. In addition, the comparatively low levels of insulation mean that the UK housing stock requires relatively higher levels of heating compared to its NW European neighbours.

Markedstrends

In addition to the government’s 20% renewables target for 2020, the most important driver for renewable energy in general is rising energy prices. For the utilities market, the Renewables Obligation, applying to the supply of electricity, is the primary policy driver within the UK. This will soon be joined by the Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation, affecting road fuel suppliers. The domestic microgeneration market is small (fewer than 100,000 existing installations) and largely driven by grant programmes

Markedsevaluering

England befinder sig i en udviklingsfase, og den vedvarende energi udgør kun en lille procentdel af den samlede energiproduktion. På grund af EU’s målsætning for 2020 vil branchen alt andet lige vokse betydeligt inden for de kommende år, hvilket vil gøre det attraktivt for danske virksomheder at etablere sig på markedet.

På trods af at vindenergi og biomasse er de områder, der har det største vækstpotentiale er der et stort eksportpotentiale indenfor alle grene af vedvarende energi.

Eftersom der i England gives tilskud samt offentlig støtte ved installation af systemer til produktion af vedvarende energi er det engelske marked interessant. Disse tilskud er vigtige og i kombination med politiske initiativer som f.eks. mål for Co2-udledning etc. er det engelske marked meget interessant.

For yderligere information kontakt venligst Rasmus Leth Traberg

Miljø
The UK environmental industry is well established, vibrant and diverse. This report shows annual turnover in the sector of around £35 billion in 2009 - roughly the same as the pharmaceuticals and aerospace sectors. It employs approximately 400,000 people in 17,000 companies.


Markedsindikatorer
The UK has a legacy of cheap landfills, partly as a result of the void spaces left behind by the mining and quarrying industry, and partly because an abundance of coal and oil has made it less necessary to use solid waste as a source of energy (CIWM, 2005a). As a result, the UK still landfills almost half of its solid waste, sends the second highest percentage of municipal waste to landfill of the EU-15, and has one of the lowest recycling rates in Europe. The increases in Landfill Tax are changing the cost equation and hence increasing recycling rates (as is government targets on household recycling). Nevertheless, a fundamental shift is required in the industry, both in terms of structure and financial investment, to transform it from a landfill business to a process technology sector
Development of alternative treatment facilities has been held back by an adversarial planning process. Local opposition to facilities, particularly incineration, can be intense, adding costs, time, and uncertainty to investments in this sector. At the same time, the waste industry as a whole suffers from a skills shortage, particularly if and when technology becomes more sophisticated.


Markedstrends

EU Directives on Landfill, Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) and End of Life Vehicles (ELV) are the main drivers in the waste market across Europe. The Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) Directive also covers the largest waste management activities (including incineration, hazardous waste and landfill sites). At the UK level, landfill tax and domestic recycling targets have been the major factors influencing the market over the last 5 years.
Recent reform of the planning process, including the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act (2004) and the publication of PPS10, is designed to force planning authorities to take into account the need for waste management facilities at a regional level and find places to site them, but it is too early to see whether these measures are being properly implemented through the planning hierarchy.
The UK waste management market is experiencing significant investment in recycling collections and reprocessing facilities as it seeks to meet government targets and catch up with the standards reached in some other European countries. The increasingly stringent targets tend to favour the larger waste companies who are able to offer a wider range of ‘one-stop’ services. At the same time, there is less emphasis on innovation in the market as it is generally assumed that investment in existing technologies and processes (e.g. kerbside collection systems, civic amenity sites, transfer stations, materials recycling facilities) can enable targets to be met.

The significant opportunities in the UK waste market for higher value waste management and treatment technologies are illustrated by the increasing investment activity in the sector, whether in mergers and acquisitions (e.g. FCC purchase of WRG) or share floats (e.g. Biffa’s demerger from Severn Trent). The UK’s Institution of Civil Engineers (2004) estimate that from 2004 to 2020 the UK will need between 1500 and 2300 new facilities to recycle, reprocess, treat and dispose of its waste at a cost of between £10bn and £30bn to meet the EU Landfill Directive’s requirements for diversion of biodegradable municipal waste from landfill.
A recent OFT report (2006) makes a number of recommendations about how the municipal waste market may be opened up to new entrants and the government has committed to implement many of the measures. It has also set up a new waste infrastructure development programme, along with changes and simplifications to arrangements for the award of waste sector PFI contracts. All of these measures could provide new opportunities in the waste management market.

The Government is also providing significant funding to help achieve the EU targets:

An extra £355 million towards funding Private Finance Initiative (PFI) projects to support investment in waste disposal facilities and divert waste from landfill. An extra £255 million of PFI credits is being provided for 2006/07, and £280 million for 2007 /08. This support is available to local authorities for building infrastructure.

The Business Resource Efficiency and Waste (BREW) programme seeks to incentivise businesses to reduce the amount of waste they send to landfill, and also assist them in developing ways to achieve this. The fund is initially to run for three years with £43 million allocated for 2005/6, £95 million for 2006/7 and £146 million for 2007/8.

The Waste and Resources Action Programme (WRAP) aims to accelerate resource efficiency by creating efficient markets for recycled materials and products and removing barriers to waste minimisation, re-use and recycling. WRAP plans to spend £77.1 million in 2006/07 and, provisionally, £79.5 million in 2007/08.

The Waste Infrastructure Development Programme is a new Waste Implementation Programme (WIP) initiative. It is producing a comprehensive strategy for the construction of the estimated £10 billion of infrastructure needed to meet the obligations of diverting biodegradable waste away from landfill. The related demonstrator programme was set up to provide £30 million of assistance to set up new waste treatment technology demonstration projects.
Large new development areas (e.g. Thames Gateway, Growth Areas and the 2012 Olympics) provide other opportunities for market expansion.


Markedsevaluering

Med udgangspunkt i de ovennævnte offentlige initatitver er der udsigt til store investeringer i miljøteknologiske produkter og services. Et af de niche områder som ambassaden vuderer vil være særdeles attraktivt for danske eksportører er indenfor Waste-to-Energy.

For yderligere information kontakt Rasmus Leth Traberg